OBSERVED IN REAL USE · Anthropic 2026
0%
of this role’s work is already showing up in real Claude usage (Anthropic Economic Index).
Lightly singed at worst. Carry on.
32% of this role’s O*NET tasks are within reach of today’s AI. That is the core-weighted exposure score from Eloundou et al. 2023 (“GPTs are GPTs”). It measures a capability ceiling, not a headcount forecast. Mostly safe. AI helps around the edges, but the job stays human.
WHAT AI CAN ALREADY DO
- Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption
- Record bus routes
- Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios
- Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration
- Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures
WHAT IT STILL CAN’T
- Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order
- Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner
- Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities
- Escort small children across roads and highways
- Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops
THE HONEST PART. A percentage is not a pink slip. High exposure usually means a role shrinks and shifts toward judgment, direction and responsibility: the parts a model can’t sign its name to. Exposure ≠ displacement. Breathe.
"My job is 32% cooked. What’s yours?"
SOURCES: O*NET 30.3 occupational tasks · Eloundou et al. 2023 (“GPTs are GPTs”,
arXiv:2303.10130) · Anthropic Economic Index 2026 (CC-BY) |
how this is calculated |
last updated 2026-07-16