EXPOSURE TO AI
42%
MODERATE
OBSERVED IN REAL USE · Anthropic 2026
0%
of this role’s work is already showing up in real Claude usage (Anthropic Economic Index).
A co-pilot is coming for the busywork, not the wheel.
42% of this role’s O*NET tasks are within reach of today’s AI. That is the core-weighted exposure score from Eloundou et al. 2023 (“GPTs are GPTs”). It measures a capability ceiling, not a headcount forecast. In the blast radius. A real slice of the work is already automatable. The rest isn’t.
WHAT AI CAN ALREADY DO
- Maintain required maps and records
- Recommend personnel actions related to disciplinary procedures, performance, leaves of absence, and grievances
- Perform administrative duties, such as compiling and maintaining records, completing forms, preparing reports, or composing correspondence
- Communicate fire details to superiors, subordinates, or interagency dispatch centers, using two-way radios
- Perform maintenance and minor repairs on firefighting equipment, including vehicles, and write and submit proposals to modify, replace, and repair equipment
WHAT IT STILL CAN’T
- Assign firefighters to jobs at strategic locations to facilitate rescue of persons and maximize application of extinguishing agents
- Provide emergency medical services as required, and perform light to heavy rescue functions at emergencies
- Serve as a working leader of an engine, hand, helicopter, or prescribed fire crew of three or more firefighters
- Instruct and drill fire department personnel in assigned duties, including firefighting, medical care, hazardous materials response, fire prevention, and related subjects
- Maintain fire suppression equipment in good condition, checking equipment periodically to ensure that it is ready for use
THE HONEST PART. A percentage is not a pink slip. High exposure usually means a role shrinks and shifts toward judgment, direction and responsibility: the parts a model can’t sign its name to. Exposure ≠ displacement. Breathe.
"My job is 42% cooked. What’s yours?"
SOURCES: O*NET 30.3 occupational tasks · Eloundou et al. 2023 (“GPTs are GPTs”,
arXiv:2303.10130) · Anthropic Economic Index 2026 (CC-BY) |
how this is calculated |
last updated 2026-07-16