EXPOSURE TO AI
17%
RESILIENT
OBSERVED IN REAL USE · Anthropic 2026
0%
of this role’s work is already showing up in real Claude usage (Anthropic Economic Index).
Robots can’t hold a hand, a scalpel, or your nerve.
17% of this role’s O*NET tasks are within reach of today’s AI. That is the core-weighted exposure score from Eloundou et al. 2023 (“GPTs are GPTs”). It measures a capability ceiling, not a headcount forecast. Certified hard to automate. Today’s AI barely touches the core of this one.
WHAT AI CAN ALREADY DO
- Receive oral or written instructions from yardmasters or yard conductors indicating track assignments and cars to be switched
- Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed
- Answer questions from passengers concerning train rules, stations, and timetable information
- Monitor trains as they go around curves to detect dragging equipment and smoking journal boxes
- Observe tracks from left sides of locomotives to detect obstructions on tracks
WHAT IT STILL CAN’T
- Observe train signals along routes and verify their meanings for engineers
- Signal locomotive engineers to start or stop trains when coupling or uncoupling cars, using hand signals, lanterns, or radio communication
- Pull or push track switches to reroute cars
- Observe signals from other crew members so that work activities can be coordinated
- Inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and handbrakes to ensure that they are securely fastened and functioning properly
THE HONEST PART. A percentage is not a pink slip. High exposure usually means a role shrinks and shifts toward judgment, direction and responsibility: the parts a model can’t sign its name to. Exposure ≠ displacement. Breathe.
"My job is 17% cooked. What’s yours?"
SOURCES: O*NET 30.3 occupational tasks · Eloundou et al. 2023 (“GPTs are GPTs”,
arXiv:2303.10130) · Anthropic Economic Index 2026 (CC-BY) |
how this is calculated |
last updated 2026-07-16